Written by: Taylor Honkofsky
Before we get into it, check out https://sportsmedanalytics.com for all injury news. @SportMDAnalysis on X. He’s a Stanford, Harvard-trained sports surgeon. You can’t get more qualified than that. Hands down the best, and most reliable source for injury news.
Best Bets: 9/11/25 Commanders vs Packers
Deebo over 4.5 rushing yards. It worked last week and I think he gets at least 2-3 carries.
Matthew Golden over 34.5 receiving yards I’m still a believer after a not so productive week 1. Jordan Love didn’t need to throw the ball that much in week 1. I think he’s gonna need to throw more often this week and Golden should be able to hit over 34.5. It also helps that Love’s passing yardage line is 236.5.
QB Edition
No opening paragraph that you’ll have to skim, let’s get straight to the point. First is a list of players I think will outperform their ADP. This is more for the Best Ball leagues, IYKYK. After you scroll past my initial list there’s a list of tiers that’ll include some evidence to support the NFL knowledge I’m putting down.
Upside QB’s
Bo Nix
Dak Prescott
Drake Maye
Justin Herbert
Trevor Lawrence
Michael Penix
Tier 1
Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen
These two are in a tier of their own. They’re gonna get compared to one another like it’s 1996, and you’re arguing who’s better, Pac or Big.
Tier 2
Jayden Daniels & Jalen Hurts
There’s only 2 in this tier, because tier 1 and 2 is hands down my top 4 fantasy QBs.
Tier 3
Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Drake Maye
Burrow as an actual QB is way more valuable than in fantasy. The major reason is he doesn’t get the squad too many points on the ground. Burrow should throw for 4000+ yards and 30+ TDs, just expect minimal rushing points. Joe Bieber, I mean Burrow is QB5.
The rest of my tier 3 QBs are in my top 10 because of the upside they’ll get you with their legs.
Nix finished last season on fire and I expect him to improve on his 3775 yards 29 TDs. Denver added Evan Engram, along with drafting RJ Harvey and Pat Bryant. They got an alpha WR in Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims is one of my breakout WR’s, and they have some decent depth with DeVaughn Vele and Troy Franklin. Nix was a stat monster at Oregon, he followed that up with a monster rookie season and that makes Nix my QB6.
Baker has so much talent around him and he’s a gunslinger. As stated before he gets out of the pocket and will use his legs enough points to keep Baker as my QB7. I expect some regression from last year, but not enough to keep him outside of my top 10. However, I want to grab one of the first six QB’s.
I’m on board with a Dak resurrection this year. CeeDee Lamb’s numbers are a near lock (only because there’s no such thing as a lock in sports) to improve, and the addition of George Pickens helps Dak immensely. You can wait to the later rounds to draft Dak so I like him over Baker who will most likely be drafted before Dak. I’m rollin’ with Dak at QB8.
Kyler Murray is almost a good NFL QB. The bad news is I think we’ve seen his ceiling. Murray’s a decent QB, but I don’t think he’ll ever be great. Arizona also has a subpar wide receiver core. Outside of Marvin Harrison Jr they have dust. The silver lining is they have a superstar at TE. Between Trey McBride and MHJ they should provide Murray with enough opportunity to be fantasy relevant. Murray airs the ball out enough and will get points on the ground to put him as my QB9.
I already know you’re thinking this guy doesn’t know shit, where’s Pat Mahomes? Why is Drake Maye in his top 10? The simple answer is upside. It’s a hot take, but hear me out. If you’re taking the 10th QB off the board just wait and take a combo of Maye and whichever starting QB is left in the late rounds you like. Maye’s got some talent around him. They signed Steph Diggs, used a 3rd rounder on Kyle Williams, and he already has chemistry with DeMario Douglas. New England improved their offensive line along with a much improved pass catcher out the backfield. TreVeyon Henderson promises to outperform Rhamondre Stevenson as a receiver. Maye also had 420 rushing yards in 13 games last year. This is a value rank. I’m not saying he’s gonna be top 10 in fantasy points, I’m saying he’s too good a value because you can wait to draft him. There’s some things that are certain in life: death, taxes, and a starting QB is gonna be out for the year, unfortunately sooner than later. For BestBall I’ve been smashing the draft button as my 2nd QB. In redraft he’s just a stash.
The Other Guys
So what’s up with Mahomes? Yes, he’s still in the GOAT conversation, but his best fantasy days are behind him. Travis Kelce’s best fantasy days are in the rearview, besides he’s chillin’ with his billionaire girlfriend and making movies with Adam Sandler. Rashee Rice is somewhere actin’ a fool, which is crazy cause he could be one of the best WR’s in the game. We don’t know how many games Rice is going to be suspended for, but we know it’s coming. So would I be shocked if at the end of the year I’m eating my words and Mahomes gets back to throwing for 5k yards, kind of, yeah. No shade to Kermit, I mean Mahomes, he’s still gonna do some clutch shit throughout the season and KC should be a contender.
(Wrote this before Keenan Allen was signed.) I almost put Justin Herbert in my top 10. My main concern about Herbert is the lack of receiving options. Ladd McConkey looks like the next Wes Welker, but who the fuck else is Herbert throwing the ball to? It’s crazy work that they haven’t signed Keenan Allen. If they did, then Herbert would immediately go to the top 10. I don’t trust Quentin Johnson as a #2 WR and the jury is out on rookie Tre Harris. If Harris is as advertised in college then he could supplant Johnson as the #2 WR, but it’s a tall order. The Chargers also have about as mid as a TE as you can get fantasy wise with Will Dissly. Herbert is a good QB though with a hell of an arm and he has some new RBs to throw the ball to. First round pick Omarion Hampton and free agent signing JK Dobbins should pad Herbert’s stats but the front office is failing Herbert by not adding a veteran WR.
Trevor Lawrence has had flashes of greatness. The problem lies in it was just a flash. He’s also been hurt or coming off injury the last couple years. I remember watching Lawrence towards the end of the 2023 season and thought he was playing hurt. His 2024 season ended early, but Jacksonville smacked a whole grand slam last year drafting Brian Thomas Jr. BTJ is the truth and if Lawrence can stay healthy he’s got an awful lot of weapons surrounding him. A lot of the potential success Lawrence can have, comes from this years #2 overall draft pick, Travis Hunter. We know Travis is an incredible athlete, a trait that’s much needed from a WR. The variable comes into place is that Travis likes to play defense too. We’ve never seen a full time two way player. The amount of stamina needed to play both sides makes you second guess his WR potential. Hunter is gonna be asked to be superman and batman which is quite a lot to ask of a 22 year old rookie. You can clearly see from watching any Hunter’s games at Colorado that he is an elite difference maker. We just have to wait to see how Hunter is utilized. Lawrence has a decent option at TE as well. Brenton Strange, the 2023 2nd round draft pick was a solid option including an 11 catch game last year. In addition to the new weapons Lawrence will have, he also gets a new, proven offensive coordinator in Liam Coen. Coen was the Bucs OC last season and we saw Baker have a career year, so why not Lawrence this season. Lawrence is worth a late-late round pick in redraft leagues, and a solid #2 for BestBall.
Michael Penix Jr. rounds out my list of QB’s with lots of upside. I knew from watching Penix in college, he was going to be a starting QB in the NFL. Penix showed promise replacing Kirk Cousins last year towards the end of the season. This will be the first full year for Penix and he’s loaded with weapons. Drake London is arguably a top 5 wideout, Darnell Mooney is a very solid #2 option and RB Bijan Robinson is as good as they come with the ball in his hands. TE is the lone weak spot, but who knows maybe this will be the first year TE Kyle Pitts lives up to his potential. Outside of that he isn’t a threat running the ball so we can temper any top 10 expectations. I see Penix as a waiver wire add in redraft or a solid #2 in BestBall.
RB Edition
I’ll probably be drafting 2 RBs this year in the first 3 rounds, unless a WR too good to pass up falls to me. I want to have 2 RB’s by the end of the 5th round. RB’s have more value this year, because I think we can find some late round WR’s that’ll fit into our starting lineups. The board starts to look pretty thin after round 5, so we want to grab 2 RB’s early. If you read the QB edition you’ll know that I put a lot of emphasis on drafting value guys with all the upside. Here’s my list of RBs I have outperforming their ADP.
Upside RB’s
DeVon Achane
Chase Brown
Kenneth Walker III
Omarion Hampton
TreyVeyon Henderson
D’Andre Swift
Brian Washington Jr.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tank Bigsby
Ray Davis
Braelon Allen
Roschon Johnson
Justice Hill
Will Shipley
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Tier 1
Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs
Bijan is lined up for a fantasy MVP season. Nuff’ said. Barkley is coming off a career year, while it’s hard to think he’ll eclipse the 2k mark again, there’s no reason he won’t have 1500+ yards to go along with 50 catches and 10+ TD’s, baring health of course. I think Gibbs can improve on last season’s numbers. His partner in crime David Montgomery aka Knuckles is still there, but I think Gibbs aka Sonic is the star of the show. Dan Campbell has to realize Gibbs is too talented to be taking carries away from. Campbell should be mad about last year, and he’s too smart to not feed Gibbs the rock. I have Gibbs primed for another huge year as my RB3. Side note: I bet Gibbs at +1300 and Bijan at +1600 to win Offensive POY.
Tier 2
Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, DeVon Achane, Chase Brown
King Henry currently is, and always has been an absolute monster. The only reason he’s not in tier 1 is because he doesn’t catch a lot of passes. He averaged an insane 5.9 YPC last year, his o-line is intact, and hopefully OC Todd Monken draws up creative running plays with the best running QB of all time. I’m also channeling HC John Harbaugh that come playoff time the Ravens need to feed the King, so Baltimore can get over their recent playoff troubles. The King checks in at RB4.
CMC is back! It’ll be interesting to see what CMC can do coming off a bad injury. When healthy we know he can put up RB1 numbers, but he’s played less than 7 games in 3 out of his 8 seasons. He still has Shanahan, their o-line is solid, and we’re not far removed from 2023 when he crossed that goal line twenty-one times. CMC “not Johnny 5” is alive at RB5.
I can’t help but yell A-Chain like I’m saying “2 Chainz” whenever I see an Achane highlight. Even though you pronounce it A-Chan, I don’t care. Miami was god awful when Tua went down last year, but somehow Achane still had 78 receptions. A-Chain has the backfield mostly to himself this year with a dash of some Jaylen Wright. A-Chain is the clear bellcow, he catches hella passes and I’ve seen him run almost 22 MPH. Achane, 1100+ rushing and 1600+ all purpose coming to a theatre near you. A-CHAIN, RB6.
Chase Brown is another bellcow back primed to see a ton of touches. I was all over Chase Brown last season and he helped me win some money in BestBall, so I’m a fan. Last year Zack Moss got in the way of Brown’s touches til Moss got hurt and Chase exploded. With hardly any competition to get touches, Brown is ready to move into the upper echelon of fantasy backs. I think he easily surpasses 1000+ yards rushing and 60+ receptions. The Bengals offense is elite, so we should see plenty of chances for Chase to hit the end zone. Chase is my RB7.
Tier 3
Bucky Irving, Ashton Jeanty, Josh Jacobs
Bucky was another RB I cashed in on last year. Last year my strategy was to stack up on WR’s and take shots at RB’s late in the draft. This season I think it’s pivotal to grab two of your top 10 guys cause the RB position becomes slim pickins quickly. Bucky is similar to Chase as they both started out as #2 backs and ended the season as clear #1’s. Bucky has everything you want from an early pick. He averaged 5.4 YPC and a league leading 3.93 yards after contact. He’ll have more opportunities this year. The more I write about Bucky, the more I like his outlook. Bucky is locked in at RB8.
Jeanty is one of the most accomplished college RB’s of all-time, and now we’ll get to see how that translates to the NFL. There’s no doubt the Raiders are going to constantly be feeding Jeanty the ball. The problem lies within the fact that he’s being drafted in the top 15. The Raiders aren’t good, and they might be in the toughest division in all of football. A last place finish in the AFC West is inevitable for the Raiders. To me that means they’re going to be playing from behind a lot. Add in the Raiders having a mediocre offensive line, there’s too many variables going against Jeanty. I don’t see how Jeanty will be able to do enough to warrant a top 15 pick, but I did place a bet on Jeanty to be the offensive ROY, so I do think he will have some success. He’s too talented, the volume will be there, however I think the fantasy world is expecting too much out of a rookie RB on a team who’s O/U win total is 6.5. Jeanty is RB9.
Moving along, we go from a current Raider in Jeanty, to a former Raider in Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has shown us throughout his career that he’s reliable. He’s played a minimum of 13 games in all 6 of his NFL seasons. If you look at my top 10 RB’s they’re all the clear #1’s with the exception of Gibbs, but I think Gibbs takes the reins from Montgomery. Jacobs backup MarShawn Lloyd is often hurt, but even healthy he’s not taking goal line touches away from Jacobs. The sheer volume Jacobs will get, along with him being a great inside rusher puts him firmly as my RB10.
The Other Guys
There’s a few “Other Guys” I like that aren’t listed as my “Upside” RB’s. Guys like Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, James Connor, RJ Harvey, Isiah Pacheco, Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears are all being drafted around the value I see these backs performing. I’m not reaching for any of these guys, but if they fall too much I’ll feel good about drafting them.
Kamara’s team might be the worst team in football, but he’s getting hella touches and he’s been good forever. JT pretty much the same thing as Kamara. JT’s on a bad team with no QB, but we know he’s a dog. Both Kamara and JT with a few more solid seasons should be hangin’ out in Canton, possibly together. James “not John” Connor is another RB we’ve come to depend on. Is Connor gonna lead the league in TD’s, or yards? Absolutely not. His days of being a RB1 are over, but since coming into the league in 2017, Connor and Kamara have both played at least 10 games in every season. Ironically, JT has played at least 10 games since coming into the league in 2020, so these 3 fit perfectly together.
The “The Other Guys Part Deux” is a list of backs with a lot of upside, but also pretty risky.
RJ Harvey is a rookie I like a lot, however he’s gonna be sharing carries with newly signed FA JK Dobbins. Dobbins has been hurt more than he’s been healthy, but looked rejuvenated last year. Training camp will decide their roles to start the season. I’m expecting a 60/40 split. I’m predicting Harvey to be a solid flex option, or borderline RB2.
Isiah Pacheco reminds me of SpottieOttieDopaliscious, the OutKast song that starts out “damn, damn, damn, damn.” I love watching Pacheco run. Lowkey he’s one of my favorite players even though he plays for a rival to my favorite team, the Ravens. Pacheco has so much potential with his speed and the ferocity he runs the ball with. I was all-in on Pacheco last season and he burned me like a Dutchmaster. Pacheco came back from a gruesome injury too early last year and was a shell of himself. I’m rooting for Pacheco. I hope he gets back to playing 17 games like he did in his rookie season. The other issue with Pacheco is Andy Reed loves Kareem Hunt and KC signed a solid backup in Elijah Mitchell. Reed is sure to drive fantasy managers that draft Pacheco crazy, when he puts in Hunt or Mitchell near the goal line.
Jordan Mason is an intriguing RB this year. Mason burst on the scene to fantasy relevance last year when CMC went down and then got hurt. Mason shined in the 12 games he played with the Niners, but how much of that is almost any NFL RB is going to thrive in a Kyle Shanahan offense: see Isaac Guerendo. Come Week 1 I think for sure we see a 50/50 split with Aaron Jones. Mason’s a solid NFL RB, but his volume concerns me a little. This is a year where we will find out if he can put up last year’s production for a full season.
Zach Charbonnet is another guy I like as a RB, I just hate his situation. Charbonnet exceeding his value depends on Walker getting hurt. Walker is the clear #1 so it’s hard to have a lot of faith in his 2025/26 season. Maybe the Seahawks will package Charbonnet and some picks to Dallas for Micah Parsons? Very doubtful, but Charbs would fit perfectly in Dallas. He’s on the list because of his talent, but if Walker stays healthy he’ll be lucky to see more than 7-8 carries per game.
Tyjae Spears had 84 carries compared to 260 carries from teammate Tony Pollard last year. That gap should close a decent amount this year, however Tennessee has a rookie QB, and will be at the top of the draft again in 2026. Spears is a decent RB in a horrific situation. He’s worth a late round BestBall dart around where he’s getting drafted. Unless you have a crystal ball and know Pollard is gonna get hurt I’d steer clear in redraft leagues.
The Upside
Took us a minute, but this is some in depth shit, so I got a lot to say.
Kenneth Walker III is a bad dude. If you know about advanced stats you can appreciate how good KW3 is. If you don’t know, google your favorite players’ advanced stats. Walker only played 11 games last year, but still had 8 TD’s and 46 receptions. Sometimes it’s just about talent, and Walker has plenty.
Next up comes a young man fresh out of UNC that got drafted by the San Diego, my bad I mean, LA Chargers in the first round. Omarion Hampton comes into a dream situation for an NFL RB. Jim Harbaugh, the way better HC of the Harbaugh family notoriously feeds his RB’s. Enter Hampton, a super athletic downhill RB, that finds ways to pick up extra yards every time he touches the ball. He’s also reliable catching passes out of the backfield. Coming into the season he’s an excellent pick as a strong RB2 with RB1 potential.
Another rookie RB coming into a great situation is Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson. The Pats were a disgusting mess last year, however coming into this year they seemed to have hired a cleaning lady. The Pats selected offensive players with their first 4 selections grabbing a OT 4th overall, TreVeyon 38th overall, a WR 69th overall and a C at the end of round 3. Henderson will likely start out a little slow sharing carries with Rhemondre Stevenson, but around Week 4-5 I think Henderson takes over as the bellcow. He’s already a better pass catcher than Stevenson, giving us reason to believe even his floor is pretty high.
We go from a pair of rookies to a wily veteran in D’Andre Swift. D-Swift finds holes when he runs. His vision is impeccable. Swift will benefit from an improved offensive line, and reuniting with his former OC Ben Johnson. Johnson loves to run the ball, and I’m sure he will design plenty of check downs for 2nd year QB Caleb Williams to find Swift.. The Bears only made 1 roster move at RB for the 25/26 season drafting a 7th round RB. It seems apparent they trust Swift to be their lead back. He’s a proven pass catcher, but in order to get a real Swift breakout he would have to improve on last season’s 3.8 yards per carry. I see that slightly improving along with the other surrounding variables putting him around the 1000 yard rushing mark with 50 receptions as a nice side dish.
This next RB has one hell of a story. Brian Robinson Jr. was drafted by the Redskins (Commanders will forever sound wrong,) in 2022. Robinson was shot in the leg about 3 weeks before the season, and somehow played in 12 games, starting 9. Robinson now enters his 4th NFL season with the Skins and will try to continue his streak of scoring more TDs than the previous season. Robinson had 8 TD’s last year and I don’t see any reason why he can’t at least match that. He’s absolutely the RB1 in our nation’s capital, but scoring points for the squad doesn’t typically come through the air. Backup RB Austin Ekeler will again be Washington’s 3rd down back, so we miss the opportunity to score points through receptions. The other risk is the reports out of DC’s training camp is Jacory Croskey Merritt is the real deal. I like his talent, but there’s reasons of concern about his pass catching, unless Ekeler goes down.
UPDATE: Robinson Jr. did not play in the 2nd preseason game and Washington looks to be trying to trade Robinson. Depends on his landing spot whether he’s going to be a good fantasy back this season.
Another RB with some shades of upside is the New York Football Giants RB, Tyrone Tracy Jr. Tracy is coming off a very solid rookie campaign rushing for 839 yards with only 12 games started. Tracy was RB2 until Devin Singletary went down which made Tracy RB1 the rest of the season. Tracy will share the backfield this season with 4th round draft selection out of Arizona St., Cam Skattebo. Skat is gonna get some carries no doubt, but I see Tracy as the back to own from the NYG. Tracy was fantasy relevant on a really bad Giants offense that should be improved from last season. Don’t get it twisted, the Giants still suck, but they’ll have a couple guys in Tracy and Nabers that will help your team.
If you’re from Baltimore like myself when you hear the name “Tank” there’s only one Tank and that’s Gervonta Davis. This NFL season might change some things. Tank Bigsby straight outta Jacksonville might make some noise this year. A lot of the early reports from training camp suggest Tank is gonna be the 1st down back and last year’s starter Travis Etienne is going to be the 3rd down back. It makes sense because Tank is the better inside rusher. Last season’s 50/50 split should favor Tank closer to a 70/30 split with Etienne, however there’s been positive reports about newly drafted 4th round pick Bhayshul Tuten. I’m sure Tuten will get some work, but I believe Tank is the RB1 in Jacksonville. Tank as the DUUUVAAAAL RB1 along with the addition of OC Liam Cohen should have Tank outperforming where he’s being drafted at. In redraft I’m not a huge Tank guy, but he’s one of my favorite BestBall value picks.
2nd year Buffalo Bills RB Ray Davis is getting the majority of first team reps as training camp begins due to contract confusion with Buffalo RB1 James Cook. I think the Bills and Cook will get things sorted out prior to the season starting, but Davis will continue to get a lot of preseason work regardless. Davis showed us a few highlights with his bursts of speed last season and I expect to see more of that this year. We know the Bills have a monster offense, and we want pieces of guys on teams that are gonna score lots of points. It helps that Davis finds the end zone through the air as well having 3 receiving TD’s in his rookie year. If the contract confusion or an injury holds Cook out of any games we know Ray Davis is the clear RB1 in Buffalo. Davis is another guy like Tank who is a much better BestBall pick. Unless we get some news that Cook won’t be playing Davis is just a bench stash in redraft.
Braelon Allen is another guy I’ve been hearing positive reports from coming out of training camp. Last season for the J-E-T-S was Breece Hall’s backfield, this season feels more of a 1A/1B situation. I think we see Allen in short yardage situations and Breece mixing in on 3rd downs. Again, we’re down to the BestBall guys now. Unless something happens to Hall this is a shared backfield.
The Chicago Bears seem to think Roschon Johnson is a viable NFL running back. In the offseason the Bears only brought in 7th round draft pick Kyle Monangai. Johnson is their best short yardage back out of the 3 and will get the majority of the goal line carries. D’Andre Swift is the clear #1 RB, but Johnson is likely to steal a few early down carries as well. In passing situations Swift is most likely to be the guy on the field, but Johnson should get us enough goal line carries and I think we see some improved rushing efficiency in Johnson’s 3rd season. All that and we just saw what new OC Ben Johnson did with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
I don’t think we’ll ever get to the day where Justice Hill is RB1 to start a season, but he’s a damn good 3rd down back that will get you points through receiving. The cost on Hill is peanuts. He’s a top option at the end of BestBall drafts for me. Hill is a great safety net that Lamar uses on check downs. He’s in arguably the best offense in football. There’s a role for a pass catching RB to thrive especially with a QB like Lamar.
Will Shipley is going to fill the Kenneth Gainwell role behind Saquon. Shipley kind of reminds me of Danny Woodhead. Shipley is a quick back that has the talent to be productive given the opportunity. Obviously his time on the field depends on Saquon and he’s merely a last round shot in the dark.
I haven’t seen Jacory Croskey-Merrit play yet so there’s no eye test, but all the reports out of the Commanders (that doesn’t even sound right) camp says this kid is the real deal, and will get a chance this season to showcase what he can do. According to everyone’s “know it all” best friend Google, Jacory goes by Bill. He goes by Bill because when he was little he got the nickname from having a bald head. He goes on to say “I used to have a low haircut, so people joked on me and said I looked like the character Little Bill.” Damn, kids can be ruthless. Anyways, this Bill character is lighting it up in preseason and he’s DC’s only dual threat back. I think he’ll make some noise and be a solid last round BestBall pick.
UPDATE: Ok, so now I’ve seen Bill play a little somethin. We now know for sure the Skins want to turn Bill into a full time back. Ekeler isn’t gonna get a ton of carries. Rodriguez will also mix in, but I think this is Bill’s backfield. It seems like Washington wants to move on from Robinson Jr. I want a good amount of exposure to the main back in a high powered offense. Bill catches passes and will get the volume on the ground making him a great pick in the mid to late rounds of your draft. I’m high on Bill, JCM, Jacory or whatever the fuck you wanna call him. The kids gonna have a good season.
You’re probably asking, what about Kyren Williams? I think we see regression and there’s too many other players that I like over Kyren around where he’s going in drafts.
Usually Pittsburgh is a team that produces good fantasy backs. This year feels like a strong case for a 50/50 split between rookie Kaleb Johnson and veteran Jaylen Warren. I think Pittsburgh’s offense struggles this year, but we shall see.
Strategy this year is to draft 2 RB’s by round 5 and get some guys that you like with upside to take over their respective backfields.
WR Edition
This year’s WR core is deep so strap in.
Upside WRs
AJ Brown
Ladd McConkey
Tyreek Hill
Marvin Harrison Jr.
DJ Moore
Courtland Sutton
Rashee Rice
Tetairoa McMillan
Jameson Williams
George Pickens
Calvin Ridley
Jerry Jeudy
Stephon Diggs
Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman
Jayden Reed/Matthew Golden
Emeka Egbuka
Deebo Samuel
Marvin Mims Jr.
DeMario Douglas
Jayden Higgins
Keenan Allen
Tier 1
Jaamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb
Lots of targets, yards, TD’s there’s a reason they’re first off the board.
Tier 2
Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., Drake London, AJ Brown, Malik Nabers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ladd McConkey
Puka is a QB’s dream WR. Minor concern over the Stafford injury news. I don’t think the Rams are going to be very good, so he could potentially see 150+ targets. Puka plays hard whenever he is on the field no matter what. I love Randy Moss, but he took plenty of plays off when he played for the Raiders. Puka isn’t about that life.
Nico’s floor and ceiling are pretty high. As long as he’s on the field he certainly isn’t going to disappoint. If he falls into mid round 2 I’m probably drafting Collins.
Brian Thomas Jr. is definitely in my thoughts drafting at the end of the first round. He was a league winner for a lot of people having 26 receptions, 328 yards with 4 touchdowns in the fantasy championship weeks 15-17. BTJ gets a new HC and a healthier Trevor Lawrence this year. He could easily be WR1 at the end of the season.
It’s safe to say Drake London had a better 2024 than the other Drake. London had 158 targets last season. He gets a full year with Penix and he’s about to be peppered like a steak in an asian restaurant again this season.
AJ Brown feels like a safe pick. He’s going in round 2 and you really don’t wanna fuck that up. He only played 13 games last year, but still had 67 receptions, 1079 yards, and 7 TD’s. AJ is a stud and he’s played in at least 13 games in all of his 6 seasons.
Malik Nabers has a phoney ass QB situation. Can the Giants please get a QB in the 2026 draft, or at least let’s see what Jaxon Dart can do. Russell Wilson is washed (I’d rather see Jameis or Dart) and this Giants offensive line won’t do him any favors. All that said, Nabers should see over 150 targets and we’re sure to see him on the ESPY’s as a candidate for catch of the year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has given us stability with 3 straight seasons of 106+ catches. He’s increased his TD’s in every year going from 5-6-10-12. ARSB has a good enough QB, good play calling, and shows no sign of slowing down in what should be a HOF career.
Ladd McConkey’s route running reminds me of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Ladd’s routes are extra crispy with the hot sauce to go. The best part about this young lad is he’s not short like Walker or Edelman, he’s 6 ‘0 tall, and youth is on his side. Young Ladd is gonna be atop fantasy drafts for years to come. Good team, well run offense, solid QB and we could see Ladd go from really good to a superstar.
Tier 3
Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
People are sleeping on a cheetah that’s ready to pounce. Let’s keep it real between Tua going down and Miami having awful backups last year, this man Tyreek definitely checked out. I can’t even blame him, the star WR got stuck playing with grocery store employees as his quarterbacks. It seems like Tua is healthy, so as long as that stays true we should see plenty of cheetah highlights on late night with SVP.
Tee Higgins is proof you can have two fantasy producer WR’s in one offense. It would be silly for me to predict anything except what he’s done every year he’s played. Tee routinely has given us around 70 receptions, for around 1000 yards, and 7-10 TD’s in 4 out of his 5 years.
University of MD product DJ Moore has quietly produced every single year. Moore has played at least 15 games in all 7 of his seasons. He came into the league with Cam Newton who was kind of at the end of his career, then he played with Baker before Baker was good, then he had Justin Fields who isn’t exactly known for racking up passing yards. If Moore has produced with a lot of “ehh” QB’s, why won’t he continue to produce with a 2nd year QB that has a super cannon?
Courtland Sutton is one of my favorite players to draft this year. He’s played in 15 games in 6 out of his 7 NFL seasons. Sutton is coming off a career high 135 targets and I see that number increasing this season. This is by far the best offense Denver has had since Sutton’s career started back in 2018. He’s Denver’s security blanket, he’s the guy Bo Nix is going to count on the most. I’m thinking Sutton gets 80-100 receptions with 8+ TD’s this year.
JSN followed up a solid rookie season with 100 receptions last year. Pretty damn good for a 2nd year player battling for targets with veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf and Lockett are gone now, so JSN is the new #1 WR in Seattle. The issue with JSN is the fact he has a new QB in Sam Darnold, and Seattle should be a more run focused offense .When Seattle is lined up in 3 receiver sets we should see him in his natural habitat in the slot, but his progression as an outside receiver should be interesting to see if he develops. His talent is there but the QB play is a concern.
Tier 4
Marvin Harrison Jr., Mike Evans, Tetairoa McMillan, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Jameson Williams
Marvin Harrison Jr has an incredibly strong bloodline. The kids got great genes. His Pops is an all-time great, first ballot HOF WR. People expected too much from Harrison, a rookie WR playing for a team that failed to make the playoffs. I’m optimistic about MHJ having better numbers this year, but I think year 3 might be where we get the full breakout.
11 seasons in a row Mike Evans has given us 1000+ yards. He’s had double digit TD’s in 6 of those seasons including 4 out of the last 5. He’s sure to frustrate you with a hamstring questionable tag, but he consistently goes out and gets the job done.
Tetairoa McMillian is out here trying to say his nickname is T-Mac. C’mon man, there’s only one T-Mac. I’m just calling him Tet. Tet is 6’4 so we know he can get up and snatch some Bryce Young throws. I like the reports I’m hearing out of training camp, and I like big receivers that run sub 4.5 40’s even more.
There’s a lot of unknown with McLaurin aka Scary Terry that drops him from tier 3 to tier 4. He’s unhappy. At first I was surprised to hear he wanted to be traded. He wants a contract extension, but it seems apparent DC is unwilling to negotiate with terrorists and Scary Terry. From what I’ve read it looks like Scary Terry is gonna be dripped in burgundy and gold this season. How much does being disgruntled affect his play? What we do know is, he’s had 5 straight seasons with at least 77 catches and 1000 yards. He also has an emerging superstar as a QB, and a much better wingman this year in Deebo.
DK Metcalf makes the move across the nation from Seattle to Pittsburgh. DK is gonna be the focal point of their passing offense, but Pittsburgh’s offense is known for running the ball. We also know that Aaron Rodgers is way past his prime. Add in a suspect offensive line, and it’s gonna be tough for DK to have a monster season. I still expect respectable numbers from DK, just nothing off the charts. He’s a pass, respectfully.
It’s a damn shame Rashee Rice is acting like he has no sense. He would have been a top 20 pick, if he wasn’t about to be suspended. I’m thinking the NFL gives him a 6 game suspension. That said, by the time Rice returns he could easily be a league winner. Hard to draft a guy that’s most likely gonna miss the first 6 games. It’s also hard not to draft a guy that could help you win your league down the stretch.
I’m happy for George Pickens that he gets to play in a more passing friendly offense. GP was frustrated in Pittsburgh and I think we see a mini breakout from him with Dallas. CeeDee is always gonna be WR1, but GP can fill that Tee Higgins 2nd WR role. I think GP should be around 1000 yards and 6+ TD’s.
Jameson Williams finally got himself together last year and showed us all the talent he’s been talking about. Williams recorded 1001 yards and 8 TD’s in 15 games. He’s a big play receiver that’s not shy about finding the end zone. I like his potential to get to that next level and improve on last year’s numbers.
The Other Guys
I don’t like Garrett Wilson or DaVante Adams at their ADP’s. Wilson’s problems start with he’s in a running offense. I trust Fields as a game manager/athletic QB, but he’s not that great of an actual passer. Adams is going where I’d rather pick DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins or even Scary Terry.
DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Zay Flowers would be in my tier 5 section with Zay having the most breakout potential. Zay is the only one of the 3 that’s the #1. I don’t see Smith or Waddle outperforming AJ or Tyreek. Smith and Waddle should rebound from seasons where they fell off a little. Smith has had 8-7-7 TD’s in the last 3 seasons so we can rely on him around his ADP. Waddle’s stats have deteriorated the last couple seasons, some of that being his own injury, and some being a Tua injury. If Waddle is going to produce, he needs to be healthy, and his QB needs to stay on the field. A risk that could pay off if they both stay healthy, or completely bust since Tua is high risk.
Xavier Worthy is a solid pick at his ADP. We know he can electrify your team with his big plays. He’s going to get some jet sweeps, and he’s KC’s #1 WR for at least the first 4-6 weeks. He showed he was trustworthy last season without Rice, so why couldn’t he do it again?
Chris Olave is like Diet Drake London. We know he’s going to get peppered like London. He’ll need to get into the end zone more often to get to the next level. His QB situation is bad, but they should be playing from behind often which will lead to more targets for Diet London.
Drafting Travis Hunter is quite risky, but you might have FOMO if you miss the train. If Hunter was going to only play WR this would be a different conversation. There’s no doubt in my mind that TH (same initials as me) is a seriously talented football player. How can you trust a rookie that is going to set a record for total percentage of snaps played in a season? I don’t know if I want a WR that’s also on the field with the defense. Playing offense or defense in the NFL looks exhausting. Playing both offense and defense in the NFL sounds like you’re going to have high injury risk, and your stamina better be top notch. I honestly don’t know what to expect from TH. This being his rookie season, and we don’t know how much the Jags are going to use him is cause for concern. Reports have said he wants to play more WR, we’ll just have to wait and see.
The Upside
Calvin Ridley gave fantasy owners 64 receptions, 1017 yards, 4 receiving and 1 rushing TD in 2024. Ridley did all that with straight up bums at QB in Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. Tennessee used their #1 overall pick on Cam Ward, who should improve the passing offense immediately. Ridley’s best year he had 90 receptions, 1374 yards, 9 TD’s so he’s more than capable in the right system.
I’m not sure who’s gonna be throwing the ball to Jerry Jeudy, but my guess is it starts with Flacco. Jeudy should have no problem getting 120+ targets so no matter who his QB is he’s going to get plenty of opportunity. It’s a long shot but if one of these 5 QB’s they currently have rostered steps up, then Jeudy’s stats naturally get a boost. Even at his floor, with sorry ass QB play, I still think we get a WR3/Flex season from Jeudy. Deion’s kid might have a chip on his shoulder after the draft. I could see Sanders starting around the middle to the end of the season.
Stefon Diggs is the clear alpha WR in New England this year. Diggs had his worst season last year due to a torn ACL. The one worry is his ACL recovery. His numbers and ball don’t lie. Diggs up until last year’s injury, was on a 4 year tear, having 100+ receptions. It all depends on if he needs another year to fully recover or he’s ready to roll with another 100 catch season. As long as he’s on the field Diggs will produce. As you read earlier I like his QB, so I’m expecting a nice bounce back from Diggs.
Jakobi Meyers is a safe selection around the time he is coming off draft boards. You’re drafting him around his floor so getting him at WR3 feels like half price Nike dri-fit socks. Meyers has a much better QB this season going from perennial backup Gardner Minshew and the temu version of Minshew, Aidan O’Connell. Meyers now has a veteran QB in Geno Smith who has shown us he can produce productive fantasy WRs. It’s not like Henry Ruggs Jr. is getting out of jail, Meyers is by far the most talented WR on the Raiders and will see a huge amount of targets.
Is the Bills #1 WR Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman? My answer, I’m not really sure. Coleman took a few games to flash any kind of fantasy relevance in his rookie season. It looked like he finally caught some traction, then he went down with an injury and didn’t do much when he came back for the final 4 games. Shakir on the other end led the team in targets, receptions and yards. Coleman has big breakout potential, but Shakir is the safer pick. Coleman has the higher ceiling, Shakir has a higher floor. You can feel good taking either one. I like mixing in pieces of a top tier offense, with an elite QB.
GB Packers WR Jayden Reed is a boom or bust player if I’ve ever seen one. When Reed is locked in, he’s one of the best WR’s in the NFL. The hesitation on Reed is, he just fuckin disapears sometimes. Last season in championship week 17 he posted 1 reception for 6 yards. Reed had 5 weeks last year with 1 or 2 receptions. On top of all that, Green Bay used a 1st round pick on Matthew Golden. Golden is a deep threat, less of a high volume receiver. I actually think Golden helps Reed. I like drafting Reed this year knowing the potential is there for him to be more consistent. I think Reed ends the year with the best stats from a GB WR.
Some would think Emeka Egbuka being drafted by Tampa Bay would limit him, because Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are WR1-2. I think otherwise. Egbuka is the real deal talent wise, and we saw every bit of that on showcase while he was at Ohio St. He arrives in Tampa with two killer WR’s to learn from. Egbuka does it all, his crisp route running and sheer talent will make him fantasy relevant in his rookie season. It’s also worth noting Godwin has only played a full season once in his last 5 years. Mike Evans has a forever questionable tag, so I think it’s safe to say Egbuka is going to see his share of targets.
Deebo Samuel has to be one of the best football names of all-time. Deebo gets a fresh start this year in Washington, that has a QB that’s ready to sling it. I’m sure Commanders HC Dan Quinn will draw up some creative plays in the backfield for Deebo as well. I think the McLaurin contract situation will be resolved by the beginning of the season, so we don’t have to worry about Deebo getting double teamed. I don’t see why McLaurin can’t be Deebo’s Aiyuk aka partner in crime with one of the league’s best QB’s.
Ricky Pearsall, is a WR I like a lot this year. He’s recovered well from this time last year being shot in the chest, over a damn watch at that. He showed huge potential in his last 3 games having 18 receptions, 247 yards, and 2 TD’s. That should carry over to this year. He’s the healthiest option the Niners have to start the season. I got Ricky finishing as the Niners WR1.
I saw a lot of good things from Marvin Mims at the end of last season that can’t go unnoticed. Mims finished the season hitting paydirt 6 times in his last 7 games. I think he’s locked in as Denver’s #2 WR. I also see his QB Bo Nix throwing for 4000+ and I want pieces of this offense. Mims has definitely passed the eye test and if you don’t know, check his highlight film from last season. His snap count was very low in the first half of last season and then we saw Mims hit his stride once he got playing time. Mims had a season high 69% of the snap share in the Broncos lone playoff game. That tells me HC Sean Payton trusts the kid, and when Mims is on the field he’s proven he’s capable. Even in being a small sample size, breakaway speed doesn’t lie.
DeMario Douglas quietly had 66 receptions last season. I think New England’s offense is much improved and Douglas is their #2 WR. Steph Diggs is the clear #1 and Mack Hollins is too good of an all-around football player to not have on the field, but I think we can expect a slight improvement from last season. In redraft I can all but promise you someone is going to get hurt and Douglas will be a popular waiver wire add. Great BestBall pick.
Jayden Higgins was the 5th WR to be taken off the board this year and it looks like he’s going to start the season as CJ Stroud’s #2 WR. For Stroud and Higgins sake I hope Houston fixed some things on their offensive line. Higgins is a big target at 6 ‘4, he’s fast, athletic pretty much everything you want in a receiver. Definitely worth a late round pick.
I’m really rooting for Keenan Allen this year. I’ve drafted around 20 BestBall teams so far, and I have Allen in about 75% of my leagues. Allen had around a 200 ADP and I consistently drafted him in the 160-170 range. I knew someone was going to sign him, but Allen is in a great spot to end his career. It’s like the fantasy world forgot about Keenan Allen because he didn’t have a monster hiatus in Chicago. He’s back with the Chargers and this is the same Keenan Allen who’s given us 120+ targets in 7 of his last 8 seasons. We know he has chemistry with Herbert, I think him signing back with the Chargers is the perfect storm. Definitely worth a late pick.
The Other other Guys
If guys like Rome Odunze or Josh Downs played for my favorite team I’d be excited. As far as fantasy, I like guys like Deebo, Jakobi Meyers, Jayden Reed, Steph Diggs, and Jerry Jeudy better.
After 3 years of mediocrity, Jauan Jennings came out of nowhere with 77 receptions and 975 yards. I’m not a believer in Purdy putting up huge numbers. I think Kittle and Pearsall soak up too many targets for Jauan to be drafted when he’s coming off the board.
A 3 game suspension and Justin Jefferson throws a block on Jordan Addison’s upside. Addison is a solid NFL receiver and will have some fantasy worthy games, but I don’t think it will be enough. He’s in a constant battle for targets with two of the best in Jettas and Hockenson.
Michael Pittman is gonna be blocked by Josh Downs, new rookie TE Tyler Warren and poor QB play for targets.
I think Cooper Kupp’s best days are behind him and I really don’t like Darnold. JSN is the only Seattle WR worth consideration.
Rashid Shaheed is a casualty of a poor QB. Olave is the only one to consider in the bayou.
Chris Godwin is an elite receiver. I’m just scared of his injuries. If he falls past 90th overall, I’d grab him. I don’t think Chargers rookie Tre Harris should be drafted. Harris will be competing with another Chargers WR I don’t like in Quentin Johnston. Both will fight over the scrap targets behind Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Omarion Hampton. Rashod Bateman has flashed some greatness, but overall I think he’s too inconsistent. Hollywood Brown is also inconsistent, and quite injury prone, so I’m staying away. I wanna like Luther Burden. I’m just not sure the Chi Town offense is ready to support 3 fantasy relevant receivers. Christian Kirk peaked in 2022 and had 2 disappointing seasons since. Kirk is really only a slot receiver at this point. Pass, respectfully. Darnell Mooney is the girl that’s almost pretty, but there’s something off about her. He’s being drafted late so, if you like Mooney, he’s worth a flier. I like Andrei Iosivas, but he needs an injury to either Chase or Higgins to be relevant. There’s a good chance one of the WRs from Denver besides Sutton and Mims becomes relevant. Troy Franklin, rookie Pat Bryant, Devaughn Vele or Troy Franklin will breakout given the opportunity to play more. Jalen Nailor will benefit from the Jordan Addison suspension and if he produces in those 3 games he could be difficult to keep off the field. Country ass, raccoon eating Xavier Legette hands down is the best WR to interview in 2025. He’s worth a last round pick if you like him. I personally won’t have much exposure, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw some improvements from his rookie season. It’s also worth mentioning Jalen Coker is the better receiver and I like Coker over Legette.
If you wanna see how Legette gets his protein.
Dyami Brown is a decent last round option. We saw Brown come alive during Washington’s playoff run last year. I think Tory Horton is gonna be the Seahawks #2 WR to start the year. He’s definitely a last round, under the radar guy. I don’t like Darnold at all, and it’s gonna be tough for him to have 2 WRs be relevant in that offense. Last but not least, ol’ reliable De’Andre Hopkins comes to a high powered offense. I think we see him find the end zone enough this year to be talked about in fantasy circles. D-Hop is a high IQ veteran WR, who is going to contribute. I like his ability to make adjustments in his routes that’ll mesh well with Lamar’s style.
If I didn’t list ’em, I’m not interested. Get 2 of your favorite wideouts in the first 5 rounds. I really like getting a RB or WR with your first 2 picks, hopefully Josh or Lamar falls to you in the 3rd or even Kittle, and then going RB or WR for your next couple picks. By round 5 you should have 2 RBs, 2 WRs and your starting QB or TE.
TE Edition
Brock Bowers is everyone’s #1 TE this year. I like Bowers, I just don’t like the early 2nd round capital I have to spend on him. Trey McBride is everyone’s #2, but again I don’t love having to spend a 2nd early 3rd on McBride. Things get interesting when we start talking George Kittle in the late 3rd, early 4th. I expect all 3 of these TE’s to be the top receiving option in their respective offenses. It’s all about the “when.” Things get a little murky after the top 3.
TJ Hockenson does NOT make me feel like my girls pork chops. I’m worried about his knee and lack of explosiveness after the catch.
Sam LaPorta is another TE I don’t feel good about. There’s a lot of mouths to feed and he is already dealing with a minor injury.
I’m on the fence about Travis Kelce. He’s not a kid anymore, he just got engaged, and there’s plenty of receiving options in KC, even without Rashee Rice for 6 games. He’s still one of the best TE to ever step on the field, so I think we see Kelce finish around TE7-8.
Upside TE
Evan Engram, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, Colston Loveland, Isaiah Likely
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