OG Fantasy Sports

No opening paragraph that you’ll have to skim, let’s get straight to the point. First is a list of players I think will outperform their ADP. This is more for the Best Ball leagues, IYKYK. After you scroll past my initial list there’s a list of tiers that’ll include some evidence to support the NFL knowledge I’m putting down.

Upside QB’s

Bo Nix

Dak Prescot

Drake Maye

Justin Herbert

Trevor Lawrence

Michael Penix

Tier 1

Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen

These two are in a tier of their own. They’re gonna get compared to one another like it’s 1996, and you’re arguing who’s better, Pac or Big. 

Tier 2

Jayden Daniels & Jalen Hurts

There’s only 2 in this tier, because tier 1 and 2 is hands down my top 4 fantasy QBs.

Tier 3

Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Drake Maye

Burrow as an actual QB is way more valuable than in fantasy. The major reason is he doesn’t get the squad too many points on the ground. Burrow should throw for 4000+ yards and 30+ TDs, just expect minimal rushing points. Joe Bieber, I mean Burrow is QB5.

The rest of my tier 3 QBs are in my top 10 because of the upside they’ll get you with their legs. 

Nix finished last season on fire and I expect him to improve on his 3775 yards 29 TDs. Denver added Evan Engram, along with drafting RJ Harvey and Pat Bryant. They got an alpha WR in Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims is one of my breakout WR’s, and they have some decent depth with DeVaughn Vele and Troy Franklin. Nix was a stat monster at Oregon, he followed that up with a monster rookie season and that makes Nix my QB6. 

Baker has so much talent around him and he’s a gunslinger. As stated before he gets out of the pocket and will put up enough points to keep Baker as my QB7.  I expect some regression from last year, but not enough to keep him outside of my top 10. However, I want to grab one of the first six 

I’m on board with a Dak resurrection this year. CeeDee Lamb’s numbers are a near lock (only because there’s no such thing as a lock in sports) to improve, and the addition of George Pickens helps Dak immensely. You can wait to the later rounds to draft Dak so I like him over Baker who will most likely be drafted before Dak. I’m rollin’ with Dak at QB8.

Kyler Murray is almost a good NFL QB. The bad news is I think we’ve seen his ceiling. Murray’s a decent QB, but I don’t think he’ll ever be great. Arizona also has a subpar wide receiver core. Outside of Marvin Harrison Jr they have dust. The silver lining is they have a superstar at TE. Between Trey McBride and MHJ they should provide Murray with enough opportunity to be fantasy relevant. Murray airs the ball out enough and will get points on the ground to put him as my QB9.

I already know you’re thinking this guy doesn’t know shit, where’s Pat Mahomes? Why is Drake Maye in his top 10? The simple answer is upside. It’s a hot take, but hear me out. If you’re taking the 10th QB off the board just wait and take a combo of Maye and whichever starting QB is left in the late rounds you like. Maye’s got some talent around him. They signed Steph Diggs, used a 3rd rounder on Kyle Williams, and he already has chemistry with DeMario Douglas. New England improved their offensive line along with a much improved pass catcher out the backfield. TreVeyon Henderson promises to outperform Rhamondre Stevenson as a receiver. Maye also had 420 rushing yards in 13 games last year. This is a value rank. I’m not saying he’s gonna be top 10 in fantasy points, I’m saying he’s too good a value because you can wait to draft him. There’s some things that are certain in life: death, taxes, and a starting QB is gonna be out for the year, unfortunately sooner than later. For BestBall I’ve been smashing the draft button as my 2nd QB. In redraft he’s just a stash.

The Other Guys

So what’s up with Mahomes? Yes, he’s still in the GOAT conversation, but his best fantasy days are behind him. Travis Kelce’s best fantasy days are in the rearview, besides he’s chillin’ with his billionaire girlfriend and making movies with Adam Sandler. Rashee Rice is somewhere actin’ a fool, which is crazy cause he could be one of the best WR’s in the game. We don’t know how many games Rice is going to be suspended for, but we know it’s coming. So would I be shocked if at the end of the year I’m eating my words and Mahomes gets back to throwing for 5k yards, kind of, yeah. No shade to Kermit, I mean Mahomes, he’s still gonna do some clutch shit throughout the season and KC should be a contender. 

I almost put Justin Herbert in my top 10. My main concern about Herbert is the lack of receiving options. Ladd McConkey looks like the next Wes Welker, but who the fuck else is Herbert throwing the ball to? It’s crazy work that they haven’t signed Keenan Allen. If they did, then Herbert would immediately go to the top 10. I don’t trust Quentin Johnson as a #2 WR and the jury is out on rookie Tre Harris. If Harris is as advertised in college then he should supplant Johnson as the #2 WR, but it’s a tall order. The Chargers also have about as mid as a TE as you can get fantasy wise with Will Dissly. Herbert is a good QB though with a hell of an arm and he has some new RBs to throw the ball to. First round pick Omarion Hampton and free agent signing JK Dobbins should pad Herbert’s stats but the front office is failing Herbert by not adding a veteran WR.

Trevor Lawrence has had flashes of greatness. The problem lies in it was just a flash. He’s also been hurt or coming off injury the last couple years. I remember watching Lawrence towards the end of the 2023 season and thought he was playing hurt. His 2024 season ended early, but Jacksonville smacked a whole grand slam last year drafting Brian Thomas Jr. BTJ is the truth and if Lawrence can stay healthy he’s got an awful lot of weapons surrounding him. A lot of the potential success Lawrence can have, comes from this years #2 overall draft pick, Travis Hunter. We know Travis is an incredible athlete, a trait that’s much needed from a WR. The variable comes into place is that Travis likes to play defense too. We’ve never seen a full time two way player. The amount of stamina needed to play both sides makes you second guess his WR potential. Hunter is gonna be asked to be superman and batman which is quite a lot to ask of a 22 year old rookie. You can clearly see from watching any Hunter’s games at Colorado that he is an elite difference maker. We just have to wait to see how Hunter is utilized. Lawrence has a decent option at TE as well. Brenton Strange, the 2023 2nd round draft pick was a solid option including an 11 catch game last year. In addition to the new weapons Lawrence will have, he also gets a new, proven offensive coordinator in Liam Coen. Coen was the Bucs OC last season and we saw Baker have a career year, so why not Lawrence this season. Lawrence is worth a late-late round pick in redraft leagues, and a solid #2 for BestBall

Michael Penix Jr. rounds out my list of QB’s with lots of upside. I knew from watching Penix in college, he was going to be a starting QB in the NFL. Penix showed promise replacing Kirk Cousins last year towards the end of the season. This will be the first full year for Penix and he’s loaded with weapons. Drake London is arguably a top 5 wideout, Darnell Mooney is a very solid #2 option and RB Bijan Robinson is as good as they come with the ball in his hands. TE is the lone weak spot, but who knows maybe this will be the first year TE Kyle Pitts lives up to his potential. Outside of that he isn’t a threat running the ball so we can temper any top 10 expectations. I see Penix as a waiver wire add in redraft or a solid #2 in BestBall.